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Egypt, Tunisia and the illusions the West

Mohamed Mustafa El Baradei

Salve.

Da qualche tempo, la notizia più importante dall'estero riguarda la situazione di tensione nei Paesi arabi del Mediterraneo, in particolare Egitto e Tunisia, dove - a seguito di un vasto movimento popolare che i più si sono affrettati a definire "Democratic" - and it 'had the fall of the government Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and in all likelihood, is going to materialize even that of HS Muhammad Mubarak in Egypt.

I do not want to go into the economic and employment crisis that struck both countries, it 'the situation of deep social injustice that pervades the entire Arab world, certainly one of the two main causes for the explosion of discontent of these weeks.
even treat the size of these phenomena, the scope and speed for the first time in history, helped by the tools of social network , literally have surprised even the intelligence agencies better prepared: ha fatto il giro del mondo la notizia che un portavoce del governo israeliano avrebbe dichiarato che gli eventi egiziani "hanno colto Israele con i pantaloni calati": un'affermazione in cui il riferimento al Mossad appare evidente.

Quella che davvero mi preoccupa e', ancora una volta, la sconcertante ingenuità dell'opinione pubblica occidentale dinanzi a tali fenomeni che, invece di mantenere vivo un certo scetticismo, saluta in gran parte gli eventi come una sorta di "nuova primavera della democrazia araba".

E' evidente a tutti che la sola ragione per cui due regimi autoritari ed illiberali come quelli di Ben Ali e di Mubarak non erano invisi alle potenze occidentali scaturiva dall'esigenza strategica di arginare il fondamentalismo Islamic.
Egypt, after three wars, had already signed an agreement at the time of Sadat's peace and mutual recognition of borders with Israel, and Mubarak - as surely narrow-minded when it comes to personal freedoms - had cooperated effectively in action Contrast the importation of weapons into Gaza and limiting the infiltration of Hamas in their own country. This

'circumstances, as not to notice that the main beneficiaries of this chaos will be the Muslim Brotherhood, the fundamentalist organization is very strong in Egypt and with branches all over the world?
So far, the organization's members have cleverly kept apart, leaving the scene and the role of prima donna in men as Mustafa Mohamed El Baradei, educated in the West and with a long career as director general of IAEA, the UN International Agency for Atomic Energy, and awarded - together with the Agency who ran - the Nobel Peace 2005.
E 'him, so far, to clamor for the resignation of Mubarak, even to establish deadlines, conditions.

Observers must be careful not sound like a dream: an illiberal regime, brutal and authoritarian government replaced by a man of international experience, open-minded, secular and even the recipient of a Nobel Peace Prize! Even too good to be true.

In fact, it's probably 'so'.
The statements of many fanatical, fundamentalist imams and too many "intellectuals" (let's call them ') Al Azhar University, the recent very serious acts of intolerance against Coptic Christians, who now represent about 10% of the Egyptian population, systematically over the lies spread on the alleged supply of arms to the Israeli regime of Mubarak show that the country of pyramids and 'much more ready for a new authoritarian turn, this time in a rather different, that a spring for civil rights. This

'that many escapes and' that exists - mainly because of us - an extremely powerful combination between secularism, democracy and the West: in other words, more and more in the world arabo sono convinti che abbracciare la democrazia e la società liberale significhi "occidentalizzarsi" e "tradire" la vocazione musulmana, sottomettendosi ad una cultura "aliena" e limitando il potere dell'Islam, che sarebbe invece massimizzato dalla creazione del califfato universale .

Inoltre, come giustamente scrive sul "Time" di Londra il commodoro Steven Jermy (ex direttore strategico dell'Ambasciata britannica a Kabul), «La situazione odierna e' l'ultimo frutto della lunga strategia dell'Occidente in Medio Oriente e Nord Africa, che ha pensato ad assicurare la stabilita' molto più che a favorire la democrazia, [...] per cui oggi noi siamo visti più come parte del problema che della soluzione».


In short, too long we have supported their regimes that now people trying to break down. What we expect, now that we do the bridges of gold? It 'obvious that going in the direction opposite to where we are, that is, straight into the arms of fundamentalists.

The objective of Islamic fundamentalists and 'to make it' a party "credible" in the eyes of the West to take charge of leading the change of regime and bring the country to elections. Then, people will, just as happened in Gaza, to declare victory in the ballot box of fundamentalist political parties.

At that point, we risk finding ourselves with two new republics Islam - like Iran, but only Sunni and Shia - and the situation in the Mediterranean, let alone that of Israel (the first line of the West in the Middle East) will be very difficult.
Just think: in the north, with a government in Lebanon of Hezbollah, then Syria's Bashar al-Assad, and a bit 'longer in the', Iran's Ahmadinejad to the east, Jordan, tightness of the regime - whether the events in Egypt and Tunisia were to take a turn for the worse - and 'no means assured, on the south, Gaza with Hamas in the south west, the new Sunni Islamic republic of Egypt, and do not forget that in Turkey, c' is always open-minded and enlightened as Erdogan.

IOC 'not to mention the strengthening of presence in the Mediterranean countries of the fundamentalists, hostile to democracy, individual liberties, equality between men and women and civil rights of minorities. We want them, you, two new Iran, two new Ahmadinejad on the other side of the Strait of Otranto?

What happens at that point, if the pressure on Western countries around the Mediterranean had become stronger? Some predictions: Europe, mired as it is complex in its decision-making procedures, which determine the essential inability 'to take clear positions, probably will continue to pretend that nothing is as it is already doing for years.
The United States of America, if they learned their lesson di questi giorni, dovranno rivedere radicalmente la propria strategia e resistere alla tentazione di impiegare la CIA per appoggiare l'instaurazione di regimi amici o, peggio, l'uso della forza militare per abbattere le repubbliche islamiche, come già da anni si vocifera per l'Iran.
Chi invece non può davvero permettersi di stare a guardare e' Israele. Israele e' "abituato" ad essere attaccato su tutti i fronti, sa reagire e rispondere alle aggressioni; ma il peggioramento del clima internazionale e l'acuirsi delle tensioni con i Paesi confinanti e con quelli vicini potrebbero alimentare un sentimento di paura nella popolazione e, di conseguenza, spingere la politica verso percorsi più autoritari.

Si vedrà. Quel che already appears safe and 'that:

• does not prepare a better Europe for the future, not to mention the Middle East;
• any credible hypothesis of stability and peace for the Arab countries of the Middle East, if ever it will present one, can only come from people's choices, and not by external pressures that today, as well as being perceived by the people of this country as undue and inappropriate, make us more likely to become invisible and, therefore, extremely counterproductive.

Regards,

(Rio)